By Jennifer Francis, Qi Chen, Donna R. Philbrick, Richard H. Willis
Many traders understand, established totally on anecdotal proof, that analysts don't act independently. What the authors of this learn starting place monograph offer is a systematic exploration of the proof at the nature and explanations of protection analyst conflicts. This entire and insightful research can help traders overview the integrity of sell-side learn and support regulators undertake clever rules.
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8 Analysts indicate whether they are forecasting basic or diluted EPS. If an analyst’s forecast is received with a different indicator from the one the analyst used in the past, the Detail File adjusts it for consistency across time. In the Summary File, analysts’ forecasts are adjusted to be on the same basis (basic or diluted) and so indicated in the database. I/B/E/S computes and stores a dilution factor for each company, which measures the difference between basic and diluted EPS. The dilution factor is based on the ratio of a company’s last reported actual basic EPS to its last reported diluted EPS.
Several studies also documented an increase in the size of the difference between GAAP-based numbers and the earnings used by analyst-tracking services over time. These differences, and the trend in the size of the differences, appear to be the result of analyst-tracking services excluding an increasing number of charges from their reported earnings, effectively mimicking the exclusions being made by analysts and in corporate management pro forma earnings. Separately, substantial evidence indicates that nonrecurring items have become more frequent in company financial statements (Abarbanell and Lehavy 2002; Bradshaw and Sloan; Collins, Maydew, and Weiss 1997; Elliott and Hanna 1996).
The mean forecast error is the measure most influenced by tail asymmetry; tail asymmetry causes the mean forecast error to be negative, which is suggestive of forecast optimism. If one focuses on the pervasiveness of bias, however, the higher incidence of small positive forecast errors than small negative errors in the middle asymmetry predominates and leads to a conclusion of pessimism. Finally, AL (2003) noted that the zero median forecast error (consistent with a lack of bias) is the result of the tail and middle asymmetries having offsetting results.