By Richard Barkham
2000 to 2010 was once a outstanding decade for actual property. It begun with the dot.com bubble and ended with the putative restoration from the nice monetary problem. The meantime featured the world's first coordinated genuine property growth and droop. This booklet is predicated on a chain of briefings at the courting among macro monetary occasions and genuine property markets within the period of globalisation that lined the interval. jointly they provide detailed insights, new principles and sensible techniques to genuine property economics, grounded within the day by day realities of funding, improvement and fund administration operations in a number one overseas estate corporation. learn more... Foreword -- Preface -- Acknowledgements -- creation -- Macro-economics and genuine property -- genuine property and recession -- Inflation and actual property -- Retailing and retail estate -- estate businesses and reits -- genuine property and building -- Asia -- genuine property returns -- Residential genuine property -- Yields -- Appendix: modelling international actual property yields -- worldwide workplace markets -- To stick with -- Index --
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In the short term, investment supports economic activity and employment levels. In the longer term, maintaining reasonable investment rates is important in renewing the capital stock and supporting growth, as well as being of particular interest to suppliers of capital goods and associated services including commercial property. Two opposing forces will determine the direction of business investment this year. On the plus side, the rebound in financial markets has lowered the cost of finance for business.
Perhaps the message is even more radical; real estate research is only likely to produce accurate forecasts when it is fully cognisant of the influence of geopolitics on asset market performance. As globalisation proceeds, real estate outcomes at the city or even neighbourhood level are ever more influenced by politics and economics on the other side of the world. Real estate research that does not imaginatively and creatively deal with these themes runs the risk of being irrelevant. Academic real estate research, although it provides many carefully analysed case studies and useful theoretical insights, has seemed to be pursuing an ever narrower micro-economic and finance-driven agenda in recent years.
For real estate investors deflation presents particular problems, because ERVs and retail sector turnover are closely linked to inflationary trends. 7: Prices kept rising during previous growth slowdowns Macro-economics and real estate 35 protection in the UK; but elsewhere, deflation should translate into falling rental growth and therefore falling returns on capital, unless yields drop. With monthly declines in the inflation numbers for the major Western economies, some analysts have begun to talk about global deflation.