By Dong Sun Lee
Marked alterations within the stability of energy among states within the overseas approach are ordinarily obvious through IR students as one of the most typical motives of conflict. This ebook explains why such energy shifts bring about warfare breaking out on occasion, yet no longer in others. not like latest techniques, this publication argues that the army technique of declining states is the main determinant of no matter if energy shifts bring about conflict or cross peacefully. extra particularly, Dong solar Lee argues that the likelihood of warfare is essentially a functionality of whether a declining kingdom possesses a ‘manoeuvre method’ or an ‘attrition strategy’. The argument is constructed throughout the research of fourteen strength shifts between nice powers during the last centuries. Shifts within the stability of strength and the attendant dangers of battle stay a permanent function of overseas politics. This ebook argues that policymakers have to comprehend the criteria influencing the chance of struggle due to those alterations, specifically the modern shifts in strength because of the increase of China and from the expansion of nuclear proliferation.
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Extra info for Power Shifts, Strategy and War: Declining States and International Conflict (Routledge Global Security Studies)
62 If the military dominates the policy-making process, military strategy will directly influence strategic assessments. This will also be the case when civilians have sufficient expertise and information on strategy. A strategic theory of preventive war 29 Extensions Coalition warfare So far I have assumed that a declining state chooses to fight against a rising state alone. What then happens if the riser has major power allies? The answer is that war is likely when a maneuver strategy is available against the most powerful member of the opposing coalition.
Therefore, those states that provide high-quality military education and/or recruit the first-rate manpower into their officer corps are particularly likely to possess maneuver strategies. So are the states that conduct military operations and exercises frequently. Also, military organizations firmly committed to meritocracy and free exchanges of ideas may be better able to create these 34 A strategic theory of preventive war superior strategies, because such institutions can increase the chance that astute strategists get to influence operational planning.
A strategic theory of preventive war 29 Extensions Coalition warfare So far I have assumed that a declining state chooses to fight against a rising state alone. What then happens if the riser has major power allies? The answer is that war is likely when a maneuver strategy is available against the most powerful member of the opposing coalition. If a maneuver strategy is available against each and every opponent, there is no doubt that preventive war is likely, because the declining state is capable of defeating the enemies simultaneously or in sequence.