Download House Prices and the Macroeconomy: Implications for Banking by Charles Goodhart, Boris Hofmann PDF

By Charles Goodhart, Boris Hofmann

The macroeconomic implications of asset cost flucuations have obtained expanding awareness in educational and coverage circles lately, largely end result of the contemporary boom-bust bubbles within the fairness and now housing markets. This e-book goals to enquire the position of asset costs for varied facets of the macroeconomy.

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8 Thus we get the baseline equation: ⌬cpitϩi ϭ ␣ ϩ ␤0⌬cpitϪj ϩ ␤1⌬gdptϪj ϩ ␤2⌬mtϪj ϩ ␤3irtϪj ϩ ␤4⌬exrtϪj 5 For Ireland we could not obtain a long enough series for real GDP, so we used industrial production instead. 4 below. 6 In preliminary regressions we also included the rate of change in wages (hourly earnings) and the rate of change in the US oil price in the baseline equation. As the coefficients of these variables came out either insignificant or wrongly signed, we decided subsequently to omit these variables from the regression.

3 However, there are also real determinants of the real exchange rates which could give rise to long-run deterministic trends in real exchange rates. For example, the Balassa–Samuelson effect implies that if a country has higher long-run productivity growth in its tradeable goods sector than its trading partners, then its real exchange rate will appreciate in the long run. Thus, there can be a long-run trend in real exchange rates. For this reason, we model the long-run trend of real exchange rates by regressing the real exchange rate on a constant and a linear trend.


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