Download Economic Cycles, Crises, and the Global Periphery by Leonid Grinin, Visit Amazon's Andrey Korotayev Page, search PDF

By Leonid Grinin, Visit Amazon's Andrey Korotayev Page, search results, Learn about Author Central, Andrey Korotayev, , Arno Tausch

This thought-provoking monograph analyzes lengthy- medium- and momentary worldwide cycles of prosperity, recession, and melancholy, plotting them opposed to centuries of vital international occasions. significant examine on financial and political cycles is built-in to elucidate evolving relationships among the worldwide heart and its outer edge in addition to present around the globe financial upheavals and capability destiny advancements. imperative to this survey are successive waves of business and, later, technological and cybernetic development, resulting in the present period of globalization and the alterations of the jobs of either Western powers and previous minors gamers, despite the fact that that would result in the formation of the realm order with no hegemon. also, the authors expect what they time period the Great Convergence, the lessening of inequities among the worldwide center and the remainder of the area, together with the wealth hole among First and 3rd international countries.

Among the themes during this bold volume:

· Why politics is usually passed over from monetary analysis.

· Why monetary cycles are the most important to knowing the fashionable geopolitical panorama.

· How the getting older of the constructed global will impact international technological and financial future.<

· The evolving technological forecast for worldwide North and South.

· the place the U.S. is probably going to face at the destiny global stage.

Economic Cycles, Crises, and the worldwide Periphery will encourage dialogue and debate between sociologists, international economists, demographers, international historians, and futurologists. This professional wisdom is critical for extra learn, proactive reaction, and preparedness for a brand new age of sociopolitical swap.

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Extra info for Economic Cycles, Crises, and the Global Periphery

Sample text

Actually, the world GDP dynamics is determined to a considerable extent by the dynamics of those two variables. Kondratieff Waves in the Post-World War II GDP Data 31 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 2005 2000 1995 1990 1985 1980 1975 1970 1965 1960 1955 1950 1945 Fig. 3 Dynamics of the Annual World GDP Growth Rates (%), 1945–2007; 1945 point corresponds to the average annual growth rate in the 1940s. Initial series: Maddison/World Bank empirical estimates Fig. 4 Maddison/World Bank empirical estimates with fitted LOWESS line.

It is worth noting that van Duijn puts forward a very plausible hypothesis that long waves in economic growth emerged in the second half of the nineteenth century, replacing long waves in price movements (van Duijn, 1983: 91). If we accept the idea of natural changes in the K-wave factors, it allows us to move to an organic synthesis of all the major theories explaining K-waves through monetary, technological, investment, external and military factors. But of course, such a change of the driving forces of long-term trends could not be either rapid or complete.

Hence, they are bound to influence K-wave dynamics. However, there is a reverse influence of those waves on World System development. , Kondratieff, 1935: 111; Кoндpaтьeв, 2002: 373–374). On the other hand, it is quite clear that those processes themselves influenced K-wave dynamics in a very significant way and world wars provide salient illustrations. , Goldstein, 1988). Breakthrough inventions (producing new technological systems) tend to be made during downswings, whereas their wide implementation is observed during subsequent upswings.

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