By Jan Teorell
What are the determinants of democratization? Do the standards that circulate international locations towards democracy additionally support them chorus from backsliding towards autocracy? This ebook makes an attempt to reply to those questions via a mixture of a statistical research of social, financial, and foreign determinants of regime swap in a hundred sixty five international locations world wide in 1972-2006, and case learn paintings on 9 episodes of democratization happening in Argentina, Bolivia, Hungary, Nepal, Peru, the Philippines, South Africa, Turkey, and Uruguay. The findings recommend that democracy is promoted by way of long term structural forces resembling financial prosperity, but in addition via peaceable well known uprisings and the institutional setup of authoritarian regimes. within the short-run, notwithstanding, elite actors might play a key position, really throughout the significance of intra-regime splits. Jan Teorell argues that those effects have vital repercussions either for present theories of democratization and for the overseas community's attempt in constructing rules for democracy promoting.
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Additional info for Determinants of Democratization: Explaining Regime Change in the World, 1972-2006
The actors involved, drawing a highly inﬂuential distinction, are primarily the “hardliners” and the “softliners” of the incumbent regime, although the opposition is also to some extent taken into account. The result of these elite interactions is conditioned to a high degree by the bargaining skill of the actors involved. In addition a number of random conditions and unexpected events have the potential to determine the outcome. Although O’Donnell and Schmitter (1986, pp. 4–5) acknowledged the possibility that long-run trajectories of regime change were shaped by structural forces, they stressed the indeterminacy of the short-term dynamics.
Repressive and patriarchal family relations may create a culture of dominance that could spill over into social and political life in general. To the extent that women are more supportive of democratic principles and practices, their social marginalization may inhibit overall popular support for democracy. A patriarchal society may also “create conditions under which young men are more likely to join militant groups 1 In two much-cited articles, Acemoglu et al. (2001; 2002) argue that colonial origins determine a country’s institutional quality and long-run levels of growth.
In Samuel Huntington’s (1991, p. 107) famous words, the structural approach is thus in great need of moving from “causes” to “causers” of democratization. The strategic approach In a widely cited article Dankwart Rustow (1970, p. ” To address this neglect Rustow furnished a process model of democratization, highlighting certain “phases” – the preparatory, decision and habituation phases – through which all countries pass on their way from authoritarian to democratic rule. It would take another 26 years, with the publication of O’Donnell and Schmitter (1986), before Rustow’s model (1970) would reappear in a form that literally transformed the study of comparative democratization.