By Patricia Grossi, Howard Kunreuther
Catastrophe Modeling: a brand new method of dealing with possibility is the 1st publication that systematically analyzes how disaster types can be utilized for assessing and dealing with dangers of maximum occasions. It specializes in traditional catastrophe chance, but additionally discusses the administration of terrorism danger. a different function of this booklet is the involvement of 3 best disaster modeling businesses, AIR around the world, EQECAT, and threat administration strategies, who learn the function of disaster modeling in cost atmosphere, portfolio administration and chance financing.
Using information from 3 version towns (Oakland, CA, lengthy seashore, CA and Miami/Dade County, FLA), specialists from the Wharton college of the college of Pennsylvania study the position of disaster modeling to improve hazard administration techniques for lowering and spreading the losses from destiny mess ups. Given the uncertainties linked to terrorism the e-book issues out the possibilities for using disaster versions to set assurance premiums and to ascertain public-private partnerships for offering monetary assistance within the occasion of a terrorist assault.
"This ebook fills a severe want in atmosphere forth the function of recent possibility research in dealing with disaster hazard. there isn't any related reference paintings for this crucial topic region. The booklet is easily written and good geared up. It includes contributions from the various such a lot unique specialists within the fields of possibility research and threat administration. It moves an outstanding stability among the technical features of the topic and the sensible elements of choice making."
"This publication is strongly prompt for many who needs to make judgements in regards to the administration of affects of disaster hazards together with these in either the private and non-private sector."
Wilfred D. Iwan
Professor of utilized Mechanics, Emeritus
Director, Earthquake Engineering examine Laboratory
California Institute of Technology
"The authors have captured the essence of disaster modeling: its price, its application and its boundaries. each practitioner within the disaster possibility box may still learn this book."
Franklin W. Nutter, President
Reinsurance organization of America
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Extra info for Catastrophe Modeling: A New Approach to Managing Risk
Assume that all homes in an earthquake-prone area are equally resistant to damage such that the insurance premium, z, is the same for each structure. Further assume that an insurer has $A dollars in current surplus and wants to determine the number of policies it can write and still satisfy its survival constraint. Then, the maximum number of policies, n, satisfying the survival constraint is: Whether the company will view the earthquake risk as insurable depends on whether the fixed cost of marketing and issuing policies is sufficiently low to make a positive expected profit.
Topics: Annual Review of North American Natural Catastrophes 2002. Atwater, B. and Hemphill-Haley, E. (1997). Recurrence intervals for great earthquakes of the past 3,500 years at northeastern Willapa Bay, Washington. S. Geological Survey Professional Paper 1576. 108p. Beaulieu, J. (2001). Personal communication with Don Windeler, April 30, 2001. California Earthquake Authority (2003). Weekly Policy and Premium Status Report, July 31, 2003. , Wang, Y, and Wong, I. eds. (2000). Consensus statement.
In general, insurance markets flourish when companies can issue a large number of policies whose losses are spatially and otherwise independent. The portfolio follows the law of large numbers, and is thus predictable. This law states that for a series of independent and identically distributed random variables, the variance around the mean of the random variables decreases as the number of variables increases. Losses from natural hazards do not follow the law of large numbers, as they are not independent.